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CME FedWatch
Implied probabilities of a Federal Funds rate change at the upcoming FOMC meeting, based on 30-day Fed Funds futures.
Upcoming meeting summary
Ease (cut)
0.0%
No change
26.0%
Hike (raise)
74.0%
Upcoming FOMC meeting · 28 Oct 2026
Contract ZQX26 · mid price 95.9400 · current range 375-400 bps · data as of 2026-09-29 09:07 UTC
The Fed balance sheet · QT or QE?
Neutral — the balance sheet is flat
The balance sheet has barely moved over the past quarter.
balance sheet / 13w +12 bnbalance sheet / 52w +139 bnnet liquidity / 13w −42 bn
Balance sheet size
$6.75T
+139 bn over a year
WALCL · FRED
Net liquidity
$5.77T
−42 bn / 13w
balance sheet − Treasury account − reverse repo
Change over 13 weeks
+12 bn
−42 bn
balance sheet / net liquidity
Below the peak
−$2.22T
high 4/13/2022
Fed balance sheet (USD bn)net liquidity (USD bn)Bitcoin (log)
The size of the balance sheet alone does not tell you whether the Fed is tightening or easing. Since 2022 the balance sheet has been shrinking while money flowed back into the system out of reverse repo — which is why the regime here is decided from both curves at once. The thresholds are ±50 billion a quarter on the balance sheet and +100 billion on net liquidity.
CME FedWatch Tool – Conditional Meeting Probabilities
| Meeting date | 375-400 | 400-425 | 425-450 | 450-475 | 475-500 | 500-525 | 525-550 | 550-575 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.10.2026 | 26.0% | 74.0% | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 09.12.2026 | 4.0% | 33.4% | 62.6% | – | – | – | – | – |
| 27.01.2027 | 1.8% | 17.1% | 46.4% | 34.7% | – | – | – | – |
| 17.03.2027 | 0.4% | 4.9% | 23.1% | 44.0% | 27.7% | – | – | – |
| 28.04.2027 | 0.2% | 3.3% | 16.5% | 36.4% | 33.6% | 10.0% | – | – |
| 09.06.2027 | 0.1% | 2.1% | 11.6% | 29.0% | 34.6% | 18.8% | 3.7% | – |
| 28.07.2027 | 0.1% | 1.8% | 10.0% | 26.1% | 33.7% | 21.5% | 6.3% | 0.6% |
| 15.09.2027 | 0.1% | 1.5% | 8.3% | 22.8% | 32.2% | 23.9% | 9.3% | 1.8% |
| 27.10.2027 | 0.1% | 1.6% | 8.6% | 23.0% | 32.0% | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% |
| 08.12.2027 | 0.5% | 3.5% | 12.5% | 25.5% | 29.7% | 19.7% | 7.2% | 1.3% |
How the probabilities are computed
- The probabilities come from the prices of 30-day Fed Funds futures (ZQ contracts) traded on the CME exchange.
- The implied average rate for a month = 100 − futures price. In an FOMC meeting month, the old rate applies until the decision and the new one after — the expected post-meeting rate is derived from the difference.
- The expected step is distributed between the two adjacent 25bp target ranges → the resulting probabilities (the same methodology as the CME FedWatch Tool).
- Inputs: ZQ futures prices from CME, the effective EFFR rate, and the target range from FRED.