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CME FedWatch
Implied probabilities of a Federal Funds rate change at the upcoming FOMC meeting, based on 30-day Fed Funds futures.
Upcoming meeting summary
Ease (cut)
0.0 %
No change
68.0 %
Hike (raise)
32.0 %
Upcoming FOMC meeting · 16 Sep 2026
Contract ZQU26 · mid price 96.3350 · current range 350-375 bps · data as of 2026-08-14 14:00 UTC
| CME FedWatch Tool – Conditional Meeting Probabilities | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meeting date | 300-325 | 325-350 | 350-375 | 375-400 | 400-425 | 425-450 | 450-475 | 475-500 |
| 16.09.2026 | – | – | 68.0 % | 32.0 % | – | – | – | – |
| 28.10.2026 | – | – | 54.4 % | 39.2 % | 6.4 % | – | – | – |
| 09.12.2026 | – | – | 36.0 % | 44.3 % | 17.5 % | 2.2 % | – | – |
| 27.01.2027 | – | – | 30.9 % | 43.2 % | 21.3 % | 4.3 % | 0.3 % | – |
| 17.03.2027 | – | – | 24.1 % | 40.4 % | 26.1 % | 8.1 % | 1.2 % | 0.1 % |
| 28.04.2027 | – | – | 23.1 % | 39.8 % | 26.7 % | 8.8 % | 1.5 % | 0.1 % |
| 09.06.2027 | – | – | 21.1 % | 38.4 % | 27.8 % | 10.3 % | 2.1 % | 0.2 % |
| 28.07.2027 | – | 1.0 % | 21.9 % | 37.9 % | 27.0 % | 9.9 % | 2.0 % | 0.2 % |
| 15.09.2027 | 0.1 % | 3.5 % | 23.8 % | 36.6 % | 25.0 % | 9.0 % | 1.8 % | 0.2 % |
| 27.10.2027 | 0.1 % | 2.8 % | 19.8 % | 34.0 % | 27.3 % | 12.2 % | 3.2 % | 0.5 % |
| 08.12.2027 | 0.5 % | 5.6 % | 22.1 % | 33.0 % | 24.9 % | 10.7 % | 2.8 % | 0.4 % |
How the probabilities are computed
- The probabilities come from the prices of 30-day Fed Funds futures (ZQ contracts) traded on the CME exchange.
- The implied average rate for a month = 100 − futures price. In an FOMC meeting month, the old rate applies until the decision and the new one after — the expected post-meeting rate is derived from the difference.
- The expected step is distributed between the two adjacent 25bp target ranges → the resulting probabilities (the same methodology as the CME FedWatch Tool).
- Inputs: ZQ futures prices from CME, the effective EFFR rate, and the target range from FRED.