Short-Term vs. Long-Term Holders

Cohort cost basis · MVRV · supply split · charts.blockhorizon.io

BTC price against both cohorts' cost basis

BTC price

$79,090.41

STH cost basis

$70,947.50

MVRV 1.115 · cohort is on average in profit

LTH cost basis

$49,322.89

MVRV 1.604 · cohort is on average in profit

Short-term supply share

17.8 %

how much of both cohorts' supply fresh hands hold

BTC priceShort-term holders — cost basisLong-term holders — cost basis

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Log axis: without it everything before 2017 would collapse onto zero.

How many bitcoins each cohort holds

Short-term holders

3.57M BTC

Long-term holders

16.51M BTC

Long-term holdersShort-term holders

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Holders are split at 155 days, the point where the odds of a coin moving again drop sharply. Younger coins are short-term supply (STH) — fresh hands — older ones long-term supply (LTH), the market that holds through the cycle.

A cohort's cost basis is the average price at which its coins last changed hands. Unlike a dimensionless ratio it is an actual dollar level: while price sits above the short-term cost basis, fresh hands are on average in profit. Drops below it have historically started capitulation waves.

Cohort MVRV is the same thing as a ratio (price divided by cost basis). Around 1.0 the cohort breaks even; long-term readings above 2 came with phases where old coins started changing hands in volume.