Where price sits against the long-term trend
10th percentile of history · high 4.05σ (6/11/2011) · low -2.44σ (10/7/2010)
the regression fits at R² 0.960 · σ 0.301 decades · Related: Rainbow Chart · KM Cycle Index
Price against fair value
How far from trend price has travelled
The Bitcoin price grows logarithmically — on a chart with logarithms on both axes (price against the age of the network) its whole history sits around a single straight line. That line is fair value: not a target and not a forecast, just the long-term trend price has oscillated around all its life.
The bands are not eyeballed. They come from the standard deviation of the actual deviations from the line, so “one sigma above trend” means the same thing in 2013 as it does today. Cycle tops arrived far above the trend and bottoms far below it — and the amplitude shrinks with every cycle.
That is exactly the difference from the Rainbow Chart: the rainbow has fixed-width bands (±0.55 decades), here the spread of the data sets them. This is not investment advice — the regression assumes the trend continues, which nobody can guarantee.