Where we are in the cycle
+17.8 points over 90 days
Companion signals
These signals lack history across full cycles, so they stay out of the index and are read alongside it.
The index across cycles
Top and alt season estimate
Previous cycle tops
| Halving | Top price | Top date | Time after the halving |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/28/2012 | $1,136.90 | top 12/5/2013 | 372 days after the halving |
| 7/9/2016 | $19,279.90 | top 12/17/2017 | 526 days after the halving |
| 5/11/2020 | $67,562.17 | top 11/9/2021 | 547 days after the halving |
| 4/20/2024 | $124,777 | top 10/7/2025 | in progress |
The window comes from how many days after the halving previous cycles topped (computed from daily price history); the alt season peak follows two to nine weeks later. It is timing, not a forecast.
Alt Season Index
69 % of the measured top-50 altcoins beat BTC over 90 days · BTC 38.2 % · measured on 35 altcoins · as of 9/29/2026
What the index is built from
A metric's score is its position between the bear market bottom and the bull market top. The vertical ticks mark the real extremes from the available history.
MVRV Z-Score
charts.blockhorizon.io · weight 3.0
high 12.70 (4/9/2013) · low -0.89 (10/19/2011)
How many standard deviations market value sits above the cost basis of all coins. The single most reliable top metric.
NUPL
charts.blockhorizon.io · weight 2.0
high 0.873 (6/4/2011) · low -1.531 (10/19/2011)
Net unrealised profit of the whole market. Above 0.72 has always meant euphoria, below zero capitulation.
RHODL Ratio
bitcoin-data.com · weight 2.0
high 13,730 (12/10/2024) · low 202 (12/26/2022)
Freshly moved coins against old ones. It spikes when new buyers flood in.
Reserve Risk
bitcoin-data.com · weight 2.0
high 0.0024 (6/25/2025) · low 0.0004 (11/21/2022)
How willing long-term holders are to sell. High = even the patient ones are taking profit.
Mayer Multiple
btc_daily_prices · weight 2.0
high 13.56 × (6/9/2011) · low 0.24 × (11/22/2011)
Price against its 200-day average. Above 2.4 the market has historically been overheated.
2Y MA Multiplier
btc_daily_prices · weight 2.0
high 3.51 × (11/30/2013) · low 0.08 × (11/22/2022)
Price against five times the two-year average. A reading of 1.0 marked the end of every bull market.
Pi Cycle Top
btc_daily_prices · weight 2.0
high 1.465 (8/3/2011) · low 0.286 (10/1/2022)
The 111-day average against twice the 350-day one. Touching 1.0 nailed the 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops to the day.
Price / 200-week average
btc_daily_prices · weight 1.5
high 16.03 × (12/17/2017) · low 0.66 × (11/22/2022)
The 200-week average was the floor of every bear market; the multiple above it measures the distance from the bottom.
Puell Multiple
btc_daily_prices · weight 2.0
high 9.37 × (4/10/2013) · low 0.34 × (1/15/2015)
Daily miner revenue against its yearly average. High values mean pressure to sell freshly mined coins.
Drawdown from ATH
btc_daily_prices · weight 1.0
high 0.0 % (8/18/2010) · low -93.2 % (11/22/2011)
How far price sits below its all-time high. Zero at the top, −75 to −85 % at the bottom.
Rainbow band position
btc_daily_prices · weight 1.0
high 100 % (5/12/2011) · low 0 % (8/29/2010)
Where price sits inside the logarithmic rainbow band — 0 is the lower edge, 100 the upper one.
Days since halving
btc_daily_prices · weight 1.5
high 1,439 d (4/19/2024) · low 0 d (11/28/2012)
The cycle calendar. Tops arrived 372, 526 and 547 days after the halving.
Deviation from fair value
btc_daily_prices · weight 2.0
high 4.05 σ (6/11/2011) · low -2.46 σ (10/7/2010)
How many standard deviations price sits above the long-term logarithmic regression trend. Tops ran 2 to 3.5 sigma above it.
Fear & Greed Index
alternative.me · weight 1.0
high 95 (6/26/2019) · low 5 (8/22/2019)
Market mood. Extreme greed sits at tops, extreme fear at bottoms.
The KM Cycle Index is a weighted average of fourteen metrics with enough history for their values to be comparable across cycles. Each one is mapped onto its position between a typical bear market bottom and a bull market top; the index is their weighted mean. 0 means the bottom, 100 the top zone.
Price metrics (Mayer, 2Y MA, Pi Cycle, Puell, Rainbow, fair value, drawdown from ATH) are computed directly from our own daily price history since 2010. On-chain metrics come from charts.blockhorizon.io (MVRV Z-Score, NUPL) and bitcoin-data.com (RHODL, Reserve Risk), sentiment from alternative.me. Each metric names the source it actually came from — if the primary one drops out the backup takes over, and if neither answers the index is computed from the rest with the weights rescaled.
The top estimate rests on timing: every cycle so far peaked roughly one to one and a half years after the halving, with the alt season peaking shortly after. This is not investment advice — the current cycle may behave differently from the previous ones.