Where we are in the cycle
The index across cycles
Top and alt season estimate
| 11/28/2012 | $1,136.90 | top 12/5/2013 | 372 days after the halving |
| 7/9/2016 | $19,279.90 | top 12/17/2017 | 526 days after the halving |
| 5/11/2020 | $67,562.17 | top 11/9/2021 | 547 days after the halving |
| 4/20/2024 | $124,777 | top 10/7/2025 | in progress |
The window comes from how many days after the halving previous cycles topped (computed from daily price history); the alt season peak follows two to nine weeks later. It is timing, not a forecast.
Alt Season Index
60 % of the top 50 altcoins beat BTC over 90 days · BTC -19.5 % · measured on 35 altcoins · as of 8/14/2026
What the index is built from
A metric's score is its position between the bear market bottom and the bull market top. The vertical ticks mark the real extremes from the available history.
How many standard deviations market value sits above the cost basis of all coins. The single most reliable top metric.
Net unrealised profit of the whole market. Above 0.72 has always meant euphoria, below zero capitulation.
Freshly moved coins against old ones. It spikes when new buyers flood in.
How willing long-term holders are to sell. High = even the patient ones are taking profit.
Price against its 200-day average. Above 2.4 the market has historically been overheated.
Price against five times the two-year average. A reading of 1.0 marked the end of every bull market.
The 111-day average against twice the 350-day one. Touching 1.0 nailed the 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops to the day.
The 200-week average was the floor of every bear market; the multiple above it measures the distance from the bottom.
Daily miner revenue against its yearly average. High values mean pressure to sell freshly mined coins.
How far price sits below its all-time high. Zero at the top, −75 to −85 % at the bottom.
Where price sits inside the logarithmic rainbow band — 0 is the lower edge, 100 the upper one.
The cycle calendar. Tops arrived 368, 526 and 549 days after the halving.
Market mood. Extreme greed sits at tops, extreme fear at bottoms.
The KM Cycle Index is a weighted average of thirteen metrics with enough history for their values to be comparable across cycles. Each one is mapped onto its position between a typical bear market bottom and a bull market top; the index is their weighted mean. 0 means the bottom, 100 the top zone.
Price metrics (Mayer, 2Y MA, Pi Cycle, Puell, Rainbow, drawdown from ATH) are computed directly from our own daily price history since 2010. On-chain metrics (MVRV Z-Score, RHODL, Reserve Risk, NUPL) come from bitcoin-data.com and sentiment from alternative.me. If a source drops out, the index is computed from the rest and the weights are rescaled.
The top estimate rests on timing: every cycle so far peaked roughly one to one and a half years after the halving, with the alt season peaking shortly after. This is not investment advice — the current cycle may behave differently from the previous ones.