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Bitcoin Macro Correlations

DXY · Gold · S&P 500 · Nasdaq · M2 Supply · Pearson correlation of daily (or monthly) returns.

BTC vs US Dollar Index

% change since the start of the period · source: FRED (DTWEXBGS)
Correlation of returns: -0.187

How to read correlation

  • +1 = the assets move in the same direction, 0 = no relationship, -1 = opposite.
  • Treat values > 0.5 or < -0.5 as a strong link; short-term values fluctuate.
  • Dollar strength (DXY) has historically had a negative correlation with Bitcoin, while stock indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq) typically correlate positively.
  • M2 is published monthly by the Fed, so its correlation is computed from monthly returns and can lag more noticeably.